May 6, 2016

Fort Mac Fires

Good day, While Fort McMurray’s oil sands plants are a distance away from the fires and therefore not at risk at the moment, production has dropped dramatically as Fort Mac residents have been evacuated entirely.  It is estimated that 1 million barrels a day of production has been halted which represents roughly 40% of the.

Apr 29, 2016

What’s Up This Week?

Good day, Our top two model portfolios are the Hudson Total Mandate Portfolio and the Willoughby Investment Pool. In the Hudson portfolio we removed the US dollar hedges this week on our hedged US equity holdings and re-allocated about 15% of the proceeds to US equities without a currency hedge. Maintaining a currency hedge means.

Apr 22, 2016

Understanding Negative Interest Rates

Good day, In order to prop up economies, countries around the world have cut interest rates below 0% for some time now. Canada has not opted for negative interest rates but the Bank of Canada has stated that it could do so if absolutely necessary. As our economy shows some signs of improvement, such fears.

Apr 15, 2016

What We’re Up To

Good day, About a year back I wrote that the “easy money” is over. Investor hunger for oversold equities post 2009, coupled with multiple rounds of monetary stimulus, had resulted in a near tripling of the S&P500. Given the generous valuations of early 2015, I stated that future opportunities would come from specific sectors and.

Feb 12, 2016

US Financials A Bargain

Good day, The irrational broad based selling over the last few weeks included US financial stocks which dropped roughly twice as much as the US market overall. As is often the case, investors have ignored the fundamentals. Today US banks are extremely well capitalized, have strong balance sheets, and are trading at very attractive valuations..

Feb 5, 2016

Will the Oil Rally Last?

Good day, A couple of weeks ago I wrote that oil prices have historically seen quick rebounds from depressed levels. As of this morning, in 13 trading days WTI is up $4.39/barrel or 15.9%, and Brent Crude is up $7 or 25.1%. While it’s too early to conclude that the January lows are indeed a.

Jan 15, 2016

Finish Line

Good day, Another week of market declines speared by oil’s relentless slide and continued concern that China’s economic woes will impact the world economy. Despite the broad selloff on the week, we saw aggressive buying on Thursday reminding us that investors won’t hesitate to press the buy button on any positive news. At this stage.

Jan 8, 2016

2016 Global Outlook

Good day, As expected the themes of 2015 are continuing into the New Year: China’s economic growth continues to slow; the Saudis are sticking to their guns and determined to drive the competition out of business; and the US dollar remains king. Divergence was the name of the game last year. Given the strength of.

Dec 22, 2015

The Christmas Truce

Friends, Not many know this but on Christmas day during World War I in 1914, tired of the battle, British, German and French troops disobeyed their superiors and reached a truce. Thousands of soldiers came together and sang Christmas songs, shared stories about their families, some played football and some actually roasted pigs together. Soldiers.

Dec 4, 2015

Never A Dull Moment

Good day, Lots going on this week… on Thursday US Chair Janet Yellen suggested that despite slow global growth, the US economy has been resilient to the point that she sees inflation hovering around 2%, at least for the next year or two. She made it quite clear that the various indicators which continue to show.

Nov 20, 2015

Big Gets Bigger

Good day, U.S. Markets rebounded this week resulting in 6 positive weeks in the last 8.  An exciting potential deal was announced this week between CP Rail and Norfolk Southern.  We’ve purchased CP Rail on June 26th in the Hudson Total Mandate Portfolio.  I’ve asked Matt to provide some details along with an interesting map.

Oct 30, 2015

October History

Good day, Investors regularly try to outsmart the market but it rarely seems to work. In the past there was some benefit in keeping seasonality in mind with October particularly known as a bad month for global markets with big single day drops. On October 24th, 1929 known as Black Tuesday, a record 16,410,0301 traded.

Oct 23, 2015

Trudeau’s Tax Plan

Good day, While Mr. Trudeau has some good intentions and hopes to positively impact human rights, global political tensions, investment in infrastructure, etc., the biggest contributor to his win was undoubtedly the promise to reduce taxes for middle income earners. I’m guessing that many voters interpreted the tax reduction plan as a huge benefit but.

Oct 9, 2015

What’s Up With Oil?

Good day, In June of 2014 crude oil hovered around $105/barrel and today it’s trading at just under $50/barrel, up from $45.09 in just shy of a month. With current supply levels outpacing demand and soft global economic growth, the short term outlook for oil is uncertain. At a hundred bucks a barrel companies were.

Oct 2, 2015

Confused Markets Continue

Good Day, Global markets continue to swing between losses and gains as investors look for clues to try to gauge the health of the global economy. The uncertainty surrounding the timing of a Fed interest hike has left investors confused resulting in higher volatility over the last few months. Even the savvy are contributing to.

Sep 18, 2015

Fed Stays Put

Good day, The much overblown debate over a Fed interest rate hike is over. It’s safe to say that markets had priced in at least one quarter percent rate hike if not two. Yesterday’s decision to keep rates unchanged will likely prove unfavourable for markets in the short term. A Fed hike this week would.

Sep 4, 2015

A Stormy Environment

Good afternoon, Markets have played tug of war over the last couple of weeks with knee jerk selloffs on fears of a global economic slowdown, followed by aggressive buying on lower valuations and positive economic news out of the U.S. All eyes are on the Fed which is scheduled to make a decision on whether.

Aug 21, 2015

China Intensifies Fears

Good afternoon, Global markets have had a rough week given oil’s continued slide and fears that China’s slowing economy will impact global growth. The S&P 500 is off roughly 6% from its May record high which fortunately is a drop in the bucket given the some 200% bull market over the past 6 plus years..

Aug 14, 2015

China Currency Devaluation Explained

Good Day, Tuesday this week, the central bank of China changed the way it manages its local currency.  The Yuan will now be fixed daily to the US dollar based on the its closing price on the previous day.  Essentially China is now letting markets determine the Yuan’s value where previously the central bank controlled.

Aug 7, 2015

Don’t Beat Yourself Up

Good afternoon, While in the Okanagan this week, a lady told me that her husband was kicking himself because he didn’t buy a property in the area some 25 years ago when waterfront lots were going for roughly $50,000. How many times have you heard people say something similar? “I should have invested in Google”.

Jul 24, 2015

We Only Care A Little Bit

Good day, The dust has settled with the Greece situation and the Chinese government has been able to engineer a program to support its stock market. While my opinion on whether I agree or disagree with such measures is irrelevant, the actions have removed the uncertainty investors dislike and should theoretically propel the markets higher..

Jul 10, 2015

A Rocky Week

Good day, To say this week was eventful is an understatement. Global markets experienced volatility throughout the week given uncertainty surrounding the Greece situation and Beijing’s introduction of new regulations designed to reduce market selloff. As of yesterday the Dow is showing -1.02% on the week but up for today, and the trend is similar.

Jun 26, 2015

Is $83 Enough?

Good day, The hopes in Europe of reaching a deal for Greece last week quickly dissipated over the weekend when talks broke down. If a deal isn’t reached by midnight tonight, Greece risks being thrown out of the European Union. Banks in Greece are limiting ATM withdrawals to 60 Euros per day (approx. $83). Global.

Jun 19, 2015

Where’s the Money?

Good day, Every morning this week I found myself checking whether or not Greek banks were still open.  With the uncertainty over potential bankruptcy, Greek’s are drawing their funds at an alarming rate and the ECB estimates that the banks could run out of money by Monday.  According to The Guardian, a UK publication, the.

May 23, 2015

Where We Stand

Good day, Rates remain low in the US which continues to propel markets higher. Valuations on the S&P 500 hover around the 18 times earnings range and while this index isn’t cheap, it’s not overly expensive either. Across the pond in Europe we’re seeing some signs of economic improvement. This coupled with the large stimulus.

Apr 28, 2015

2015 Federal Budget

Good Day, This week the 2015-2016 Canadian Federal Budget was announced with some interesting changes proposed. I’ve provided a list of what I believe to be the more relevant changes to our readers (all figures are sourced from the Government of Canada budget release). TFSA Changes Perhaps the most attractive proposal was the increase of.

Apr 10, 2015

15 Year Highs

Happy Friday, North American markets continue to tread water while Japan’s Nikkei and European equities both reached 15 year highs this week. Europe’s weak Euro and stimulus package are fuelling market growth as was the case in the US a few years ago. In Asia, speculation that additional stimulus will be announced has increased given.

Apr 6, 2015

1st Quarter Update

Good day, With three months of the year behind us, I thought I’d send a summary of the highlights before you run off to your long weekend celebrations. This year got off to an interesting start with a few themes front and center: falling oil prices, depreciating currencies against the US dollar and a surprise.

Mar 9, 2015

The Uneven Global Economy

Good day, Last week my wife and I had a quick in and out trip to Calgary for the CUPS charity gala with Melissa Etheridge. In addition to the great guitar solos, I had a chance to chat with many individuals in the oil and gas sector. Needless to say, the overall mood wasn’t great..

Feb 20, 2015

Stay Ahead

Good day, During the last 5 years I’ve periodically expressed my concerns with the trend for local investors to over invest into Canadian equities due to the inability to access a broad base of industries given our highly concentrated Toronto Stock Exchange. We had favoured the US market due to low equity valuations over the.