Author: Danny Popescu | February 14, 2022
Happy Monday,
Prior to the last week’s announcement, inflation expectations have been heavily influencing capital markets. After the announcement from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, inflation continued to dominate market influences. Year-over-year U.S. consumer inflation exceeded most analysts’ predictions and grew by 0.6% in January to 7.5%. Prices rose 0.5% in December.
Overall, U.S. consumer inflation sits at its highest level in forty years. Core inflation, which does not include the two most volatile consumer categories, food, and energy, grew by 0.6% to 6.0%. Supply chain interruptions and disruptions can no longer be blamed entirely for inflation as increases have moved to housing, rents, food, and electricity, which have a services and domestic bias. Consequently, inflation will persist beyond supply chain easing and test the Federal Reserve’s already strained patience. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Inflation is rising as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grows at above-average speed. Real wages continue to do so as well.
All of this data increases the expectation for interest rate increases from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. Typically, rate increases of 25bps are the norm, but speculation is increasing that the initial increase could be 50pbs.
These monetary policy moves will temper equities, which are already suffering in 2022 from the speculation that increasing and high inflation will lead to interest rate hikes.
What’s ahead?
In Canada, December’s retail sales, wholesale trade, and international securities transactions, and January’s housing starts, existing home sales, MLS Home Price Index, manufacturing sales and new orders will be released this week. The latest inflation numbers through the CPI will be announced on Wednesday.
In the U.S., a number of economic indicators, including retail sales, import prices, industrial production, business inventories, housing starts, and building permits, are scheduled for release.
Globally, Japan’s real GDP, trade deficit and CPI, China’s Consumer and Producer Price Indexes, Eurozone industrial production and consumer confidence will be announced.
We continue to position client accounts defensively with a healthy balance of quality public securities as well as their private counterparts.
Enjoy your week.
“I have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone and may not reflect the views of Harbourfront Wealth Management. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by Harbourfront Wealth Management Inc.”
Disclaimer – This information transmitted is intended to provide general guidance on matters of interest for the personal use of the reader who accepts full responsibility for its use and is not to be considered a definitive analysis of the law and factual situation of any particular individual or entity. As such, it should not be used as a substitute for consultation with a professional accounting, tax, legal or other professional advisor. Laws and regulations are continually changing, and their application and impact can vary widely based on the specific facts involved and will vary based on the particular situation of an individual or entity. Prior to making any decision or taking any action, you should consult with a professional advisor. The information is provided with the understanding that Harbourfront Wealth Management is not herein engaged in rendering legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. While we have made every attempt to ensure the information contained in this document is reliable, Harbourfront Wealth Management is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or as to the outcome to be obtained from the use of this information, and is without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Harbourfront Wealth Management Inc. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Harbourfront or any of its connected or related parties may act as financial advisor or fiscal agent for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. The comments and information pertaining to any investment products (The Portfolios) sponsored by Willoughby Asset Management are not to be construed as a public offering of securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. The offering of units of The Portfolios is made pursuant to the Offering Memorandum or Simplified Prospectus and only to investors in Canadian jurisdictions. Important information about The Portfolios is contained in the Offering Memorandum or Simplified Prospectus available through Willoughby Asset Management. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees, and expenses all may be associated with investments in The Portfolios. Investments in The Portfolios are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions do not take into account sales, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Unit values and investment returns will fluctuate and there is no assurance that The Portfolios can maintain a specific net asset value. Harbourfront Wealth Management Inc. (“Harbourfront”) has relationships with related and /or connected issuers, which may include the securities or funds discussed in this commentary and are disclosed in our Statement of Policies Regarding Related and Connected Issuers. This policy is included in your new client package, on our website, or can be obtained from your investment advisor.
Will 2025 be a “Golden Vintage” for Private Markets?
28 November 2024